Bank of Canada meet today, and no surprise: maintains the rate. Uncertainty remains the story:

>”outlook is vulnerable to unpredictable US trade policies and geopolitical risks.”

>” uncertainty is heightened and we are monitoring risks closely. If the outlook changes, we are prepared to respond.”

>A key source of uncertainty is the upcoming review of the Canada-US-Mexico Agreement.

BoC’s assessment from their data: GDP growth likely stalled, projected to be modest in the near term. Employment has risen in recent months, but  unemployment rate remains elevated and relatively few businesses say they plan to hire. Inflation has been slowing since September.

>>My insights: Status quo. We are in wait and see territory. Possibly for the majority of this year. Justification for either cuts or hikes would need to be significant for the BoC to make a move. The BoC does not like to make big or sudden moves. What the US Fed does has influence, and at this immediate moment, a rate cut for the US is not on the table. The looming CAD-US agreement weighs heavily on the uncertainty

Next Bank of Canada and US Fed meetings and March 18 followed by Apr 29.