Bank of Canada meeting today, no surprise: maintains the rate. US Fed is expected to follow through with the market’s expectation of a 6th rate cut (vs Canada already 9 cuts, from the start of the easing cycle).

BoC continues to say we’re now “about the right level” and “uncertainty remains elevated”

Despite recent jobs report that came in above expectations (albeit expectations are low), BoC forecasts that GDP will likely be weak.

My insights:

it increasingly appears that BoC is now done with rate cuts. Market is now anticipating at least 0.25% hike by end of next year.  That, at least, is some time away,  and leaves space for things subject to change. The recent spike in the Canada bond yield, which is the forward looking guidepost for rate trajectory, and is the basis for fixed rate mortgages, is more of a reaction in line with a  global phenomenon.  Bond yields globally are reacting to inflation stickiness, debt issuance and deficit spending. Translation: less likelihood of plummeting mortgage interest rates.

Next BoC and US Fed meetings (same schedule): Jan 28, Mar 18