Bank of Canada (BoC) holds its rate today. Theme is clear: “uncertainty remains high”. But this time, there was consensus to hold — more data needed. We’re entering less forward-guided territory. Governing Council now split. Some see a need for rate cuts if the economy weakens.

Recent data: housing slowed, government spending down, labour market softer, unemployment up. Q2 expected to be weaker.

BoC says they’re watching: how US tariffs hit exports, how much it spills into business investment, jobs, household spending; how fast cost increases pass to consumers; how inflation expectations evolve.

They end by emphasizing what matters: confidence in price stability, keeping inflation controlled.

>>> My read: Finger’s on the trigger for a rate cut — just need more data. Inflation still matters. Would help if the US Fed started cutting to narrow the rate gap, but that’s not happening (yet).

Next BoC: July 30, Sept 17
Fed: June 17 (95% chance of hold), then July 30 (same day as BoC) > Wider rate gap = more challenges ahead.