Bank of Canada (BoC) continued to holds its rate today. Just dropped another classic “if-this-then-that” update.  They’re not giving base-case projections anymore, just two trade war scenarios.  Translation? They’re hedging.

Buried in the jargon:  > Unemployment’s creeping up  > Wage growth is slowing > Inflation (outside of shelter) is cooling > Excess supply is rising = weak demand

All signs point to rate cuts unless tariffs spike costs again.  This is what a central bank sounds like when it’s trying to keep its options open.  Their own words:  “We will continue to assess… If a weakening economy puts further downward pressure on inflation and the upward price pressures from the trade disruptions are contained, there may be a need for a reduction in the policy interest rate.”

The US Fed met and held their rate today, so the gap between CAD and US is historically wide.

Next BoC: July 30, Sept 17, Oct 29, Dec 10

Fed: on the same schedule