29 Oct

Bank of Canada cuts rate again by 0.25%

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Posted by: Aneta Zimnicki

Bank of Canada cuts rate by 0.25%. US Fed followed suite same afternoon.

BoC says we’re now “about the right level”, suggesting this status quo for now.

Highlights from the announcement:
>Global financial conditions have eased since July
>CAD dollar has weakened slightly against USD
>Exports are down and business investment remains weak
>The labour market is soft, with slowing wage growth
>Excess capacity in the economy is expected to persist for some time
>Inflation is projected to stay near 2% over the next few quarters, 2% is the target

BoC acknowledged limits to what rate cuts can do, noting that structural damage from trade conflicts has reduced economic capacity and added costs. This making monetary policy a blunt tool in a slow recovery.

Next BoC meeting: December 10
Fed: same schedule

29 Sep

OSFI’s New Mortgage Rules for Rental Properties

General

Posted by: Aneta Zimnicki

Canada’s banking regulator, OSFI, has finalized updates to its Capital Adequacy Requirements (CAR 2026), setting new expectations for how federally regulated lenders treat mortgages that rely on rental income.

The key shift is about classification and capital. If a mortgage approval depends primarily on rent, say, when more than half of the qualifying income comes from the property itself, it will now be classified as Income-Producing Residential Real Estate (IPRRE). That tag matters because loans in this category require banks to hold more capital, making them costlier to keep on their books.

OSFI also clarified that income can’t be “double-counted.” In other words, rental or employment income used to support one mortgage shouldn’t be reused to qualify for another. The message is simple: every property now has to stand on its own merits.

This isn’t a sudden rule for borrowers; it’s a change to how banks manage risk internally. But as lenders adjust their models before the 2026 deadline, investors can expect some ripple effects, slightly higher pricing on rentals relative to owner-occupied, qualification tweaks, and a little less tolerance for thin cash-flow deals.

What This Means (and What It Doesn’t)

It’s not a new stress test, and OSFI isn’t banning the use of rental income. You can still use both employment and rental income to qualify. What changes is how lenders treat that income behind the scenes. Each loan must now carry its own weight rather than leaning on income already spoken for.

Think of it less as a crackdown and more as an engineering correction. The system is moving toward a cleaner, one-to-one relationship between each property’s income and its debt. It reduces risk concentration at the cost of flexibility.

For borrowers, the practical takeaway is straightforward: the math won’t necessarily change overnight, but lenders will become more selective as these capital rules filter through.

Who’s Affected (and Who Isn’t)

This change mainly affects borrowers with multiple properties, the group most likely to reuse the same income across several mortgages. If you’re buying or refinancing a rental, the rule will matter once lenders start updating their internal models.

For portfolio owners, it’s not a direct requalification trigger, but it’s still a warning. Even if you’re not actively expanding, your next refinance or switch to another lender could feel different once these guidelines are absorbed into policy. The same goes for anyone planning to buy a new primary residence while carrying rentals in the background, how those rentals are treated on paper could shift your borrowing power.

As for renewals, OSFI’s rule doesn’t force lenders to re-underwrite existing loans. That’s consistent with how renewals have always worked in Canada, renewing with your current lender doesn’t trigger a new approval test. But if you switch lenders to chase a lower rate, that’s technically a new deal, and new deals live under the new capital framework.

It’s also worth remembering that OSFI regulates only federally regulated lenders, mainly the large national banks and mortgage institutions. Provincially regulated credit unions and certain mortgage finance companies operate under their own oversight, which may give them more flexibility. That’s not a guarantee of better terms, but it does mean the market could split: some lenders following OSFI’s capital rules, others charting their own path.

My Take

This isn’t the end of real estate investing, but it is the end of easy scaling. The days of stretching the same income across a string of properties are fading, replaced by a model where every property has to stand on its own numbers.

On the surface, this is about protecting banks and the financial system. But the by-product is clear: small landlords will face more friction, and over time, the rental market will continue to tilt toward institutional ownership, developers, REITs, and pension funds that can operate within commercial-style frameworks.

That said, lenders have not yet released their specific guidelines. Until they do, the exact impact remains to be seen. How each institution interprets and applies OSFI’s framework will determine how much borrowers actually feel these changes in practice.

 

17 Sep

Bank of Canada drops rate by 0.25%

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Posted by: Aneta Zimnicki

Both the BoC and the Fed cut rates by 0.25% this week.

My assessment :

In Canada, the move reflected a weakening economy: GDP, exports, investment, jobs, wages all softer. Markets expect at least one, possibly two, more cuts this year.

For housing, this may draw some sidelined buyers back into the market, simply because there’s finally a clearer sense of direction.

In the US, the Fed cut more reluctantly,  inflation is still sticky, but job growth is cooling. It was framed as a ‘risk management’ move.  Markets now see a 90% chance of another cut in Oct.

Since Canada cut earlier and more often, this US move narrows the gap. That gives the BoC a bit more flexibility to ease further without pushing the dollar down too hard.

Important reminder: the BoC rate directly impacts variable mortgages. Fixed rates follow bond yields and market expectations, not the overnight rate, so today’s cut doesn’t mean fixed rates automatically fall. So now we watch the sentiment,  here and in the US, and how it plays out in the bond market.

Next BoC: Oct 29, Dec 10

Fed: on the same schedule

30 Jul

Bank of Canada continues to holds its rate

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Posted by: Aneta Zimnicki

Bank of Canada (BoC) continued to holds its rate today. Just dropped another classic “if-this-then-that” update.  They’re not giving base-case projections anymore, just two trade war scenarios.  Translation? They’re hedging.

Buried in the jargon:  > Unemployment’s creeping up  > Wage growth is slowing > Inflation (outside of shelter) is cooling > Excess supply is rising = weak demand

All signs point to rate cuts unless tariffs spike costs again.  This is what a central bank sounds like when it’s trying to keep its options open.  Their own words:  “We will continue to assess… If a weakening economy puts further downward pressure on inflation and the upward price pressures from the trade disruptions are contained, there may be a need for a reduction in the policy interest rate.”

The US Fed met and held their rate today, so the gap between CAD and US is historically wide.

Next BoC: July 30, Sept 17, Oct 29, Dec 10

Fed: on the same schedule

4 Jun

Bank of Canada holds rate, “uncertainty remains high”

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Posted by: Aneta Zimnicki

Bank of Canada (BoC) holds its rate today. Theme is clear: “uncertainty remains high”. But this time, there was consensus to hold — more data needed. We’re entering less forward-guided territory. Governing Council now split. Some see a need for rate cuts if the economy weakens.

Recent data: housing slowed, government spending down, labour market softer, unemployment up. Q2 expected to be weaker.

BoC says they’re watching: how US tariffs hit exports, how much it spills into business investment, jobs, household spending; how fast cost increases pass to consumers; how inflation expectations evolve.

They end by emphasizing what matters: confidence in price stability, keeping inflation controlled.

>>> My read: Finger’s on the trigger for a rate cut — just need more data. Inflation still matters. Would help if the US Fed started cutting to narrow the rate gap, but that’s not happening (yet).

Next BoC: July 30, Sept 17
Fed: June 17 (95% chance of hold), then July 30 (same day as BoC) > Wider rate gap = more challenges ahead.

16 Apr

Bank of Canada holds rates steady, but much uncertainty

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Posted by: Aneta Zimnicki

Bank of Canada (BoC) holds rates steady today. Acknowledges it cannot resolve trade uncertainty or mitigate effects of a trade war. Focus remains on maintaining price stability.

>Tone: Dominated by rising tariffs, uncertainty, and extreme market volatility.

>Canada: Economy slowing; employment down; wage growth softening.

>US: Signs of slowing growth; inflation expectations climbing.

>BoC outlook: Short-term inflation seen rising (tariffs/supply issues); longer-term expectations mostly stable. CPI drop expected in April due to carbon tax rebate.

>Inflation tension: Weaker demand is disinflationary; tariffs are inflationary—BoC monitoring how much gets passed to consumers.

>BoC focus: Watching tariffs’ impact on exports, business investment, employment, and household spending.

>>> My take: BoC didn’t cut due to tariff-driven uncertainty but has a dovish lean, signaling openness to rate cuts if risks persist.  US metrics increasingly unreliable—policy gap may widen further.

Next BoC: June 4, July 30

Fed: May 7 (88% chance of hold), then June 18  Wider CAD-USD rate gap = rising policy divergence risk

12 Mar

Another 0.25% rate drop today, but BoC admits it can’t fix trade war impact

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Posted by: Aneta Zimnicki

As expected, the Bank of Canada (BoC) drops its rate by another 0.25% today—but it admits it can’t fix the impact of the trade war.

> Tone of the announcement: In their own words: “more-than-usual uncertainty.”
> Consumer confidence is plunging > business slowdown, investment cancellations.An
> Housing: Past rate cuts boosted activity, but shelter inflation persists.
> Jobs: Hiring had momentum, but trade tensions threaten recovery.
> BoC’s balancing act: A weaker economy pushes rates down, but inflation pressures push them up.

> Strongest words from the BoC:
“Monetary policy cannot offset the impacts of a trade war. What it can and must do is ensure that higher prices do not lead to ongoing inflation.”

>>> My read: They’re focused on keeping inflation in check—suggesting no hikes ahead, but further cuts remain on the table.

Next BoC meetings: April 16, June 4
US Fed: March 19 (expected hold), then May 7 > Widening rate gap = more challenges ahead.

29 Jan

Another 0.25% drop from Bank of Canada, ends quantitative tightening, uncertainty takes center stage

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Posted by: Aneta Zimnicki

Bank of Canada (BoC) drops their rate by another 0.25%. It also announced the end of quantitative tightening and will gradually restart asset purchases.  This is telling. It’s a quiet signal that they’re wary of economic weakness, trade risks, and drifting further from the US Fed.

The Canadian dollar has depreciated materially against the US dollar, largely reflecting trade uncertainty and broader strength in the US currency. Bond yields tell two stories: US yields are up, driven by strong growth and sticky inflation. Canadian yields are down slightly, suggesting weaker economic momentum. Canadian business investment remains weak.

BoC released its latest forecasts today, but with trade tariffs on the horizon, a lot of it already feels outdated—like turning in an assignment when the questions just changed. Even they acknowledge this in their announcement:  “scope and duration of a possible trade conflict are impossible to predict.”

Wage pressures, though sticky, are easing. Shelter inflation is still high but gradually coming down. Inflation is tracking close to 2%, and the BoC expects it to stay near target over the next two years. Putting aside the tariff variable, this forecast makes further rate hikes less likely, as the BoC sees its target as met—or at least, they’d be cautious about cutting too fast.

Trade risks are the wild card. If GDP slows, the BoC may lean toward more cuts, but if tariffs push prices higher, they could hold off, creating uncertainty around future rate moves.

The BoC points out there have already been substantial cumulative rate cuts since last June. Lower interest rates are boosting household spending. Ends announcement with a strong statement:  “if broad-based and significant tariffs were imposed, the resilience of Canada’s economy would be tested.”

Next BoC meetings March 12, then April 16. US Fed announcement is later today (expected hold), next March 19. This widening gap between US and Canadian rates puts added pressure on the BoC. A weaker CAD and rising import costs could make BoC think twice before cutting further.

 

 

11 Dec

Another 0.50% drop by the Bank of Canada

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Posted by: Aneta Zimnicki

Bank of Canada (BoC) drops their rate by another 0.5%. Canadian dollar has depreciated in the face of broad-based strength in the US dollar. The recent unemployment rate rose, as employment continued to grow more slowly than the labour force. Wage growth showed some signs of easing, but remains elevated relative to productivity. The upward pressure on inflation from shelter and the downward pressure from goods prices have both moderated as expected.

GDP growth is weaker than projected. BoC acknowledged immigration, changes to mortgage rules, and temporary policies such as the GST suspension and stated “The Bank will look through effects that are temporary and focus on underlying trends to guide its policy decisions.” BoC’s statement appears to subtly critique the government’s temporary policy measures as economic window dressing, which lacks any meaningful economic impact.

BoC also noted increased uncertainty and clouded  economic outlook with the possibility of new tariffs on Canadian exports to US. The nod to potential US tariffs reveals Canada’s increasingly passive economic role, more passenger than driver.

Closing statement signals a definitive shift from the previous “wait and watch” approach to a clear path of rate reduction. “Going forward, we will be evaluating the need for further reductions in the policy rate one decision at a time.”

Next BoC meetings Jan 29 followed by March 12. US Fed will make their next rate announcement Dec 18, 2024.

23 Oct

Bank of Canada reduces policy rate by 0.50%

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Posted by: Aneta Zimnicki

Bank of Canada (BoC) drops their rate by 0.5%, ‘to support economic growth’.    Consumption has continued to grow but is declining on a per person basis. The labour market remains soft. Population growth has continued to expand the labour force while hiring has been modest. Wage growth remains elevated relative to productivity growth. Overall, the economy continues to be in excess supply. Residential investment growth is also projected to rise as strong demand for housing lifts sales and spending on renovations.  Inflation in shelter costs remains elevated but has begun to ease. Business and consumer inflation expectations have largely normalized.

BoC seems to have turned the corner and now projects a gradually strengthening economy, supported by lower interest rates, with any upward and downward pressures on inflation roughly balancing out.  While their language hints at additional reductions, they’re intentionally vague about the specific timeline.   “If the economy evolves broadly in line with our latest forecast, we expect to reduce the policy rate further. However, the timing and pace of further reductions in the policy rate will be guided by incoming information . We will take decisions one meeting at a time. ”

It will be interesting to see how this affects real estate, along with the recent changes in mortgage rules, particularly for first time home buyers.  BoC itself admits in today’s statement, “strong demand for housing to lift sales”. This could potentially lead to a return to a more competitive housing market, as the new mortgage affordability calculations may bring homeownership within reach for a cohort of buyers who have been waiting on the sidelines.

Next BoC meetings  Dec 11 followed by Jan 29.   US Fed will make their next rate announcement Nov 7, 2024, shortly after the US election.